THE WRONG SLAM

A recent Thursday saw partner and me in action, and we started out with a top against the eventual winners, thus:

. N/S Vul. Dealer S	A J 9 A 4 3 A J 5 4 J 10 6
8 J 6 5 10 7 3 2 K Q 5 4 2	N   W E   S	Q 10 7 6 5 4 2 10 9 8 7 - 8 7	South	West	North	East
	K 3 K Q 2 K Q 9 8 6 A 9 3		1 4 4	- - -	2 4 6	3 -

I opened the South hand with 1 diamond, which pleased partner. She bid two diamonds, playing inverted minors*. East now tried to upset things by bidding 3 spades and I had a problem. Should I try 3 notrumps or stick with diamonds? I decided to go with the diamonds, nervous of possibly ending in 6NT with a single stop. I cue-bid four clubs and ended up in a small slam on the lead of the 8.
When dummy went down, it was obvious I had made the wrong decision. Every other declarer in the room would surely be in 6 NT (in fact, one was to stop in four). My decision to stick with diamonds meant I stayed out of the 75% notrump slam, which required one of the two club finesses to work. Perhaps this is why I struggle to reach 50% on Thursdays, our top night, but this time being in a suit contract gave me a chance to improve on even those generous odds when I needed it. My only hope was that every other declarer would only make 11 tricks if the double club finesse failed (which was to be the case ).
The 8 was covered by the 9, 10 and K. I was then a little dismayed to find that trumps broke 4-0 but I drew them all. I assumed that West had led a singleton spade and he now had no diamonds left either. I then played three rounds of hearts finishing up in dummy. The situation now was that West either had 5 clubs left or 4 clubs and a heart. I led the J from dummy and let it run. West proved to have only clubs left, and won the Q, but then had to lead away from the K to my A 9, giving me my 12th trick.
If West had turned up with the long heart to exit with I would have been able to trump it then go back to dummy with a spade to rely on the second club finesse. Note also, that in effect I played it in notrumps, and had those in the notrump slam played the same way they would have made it. Of course, in their case if west had turned up with the long heart they would have been down, so it wasn't a good bet for them.

Notes for those interested: My chances of the double finesse succeeding are 75% (the first one has a 50% chance, and the second has 50% of the remaining 50%). So, I therefore have a 25% chance of losing both. Now the odds of West having the 13th heart are 50%, so I gain a 50% chance of improving on the 25% which is 12.5% or a total (75%+12.5%) 87.5% overall chance of success. These figures assume an innocent-looking East is the kind of devious person who would bid 3 spades with two points and a four-card heart suit! Of course, if West shows out on the third round of hearts I draw another spade to confirm he has none left and the throw-in is then 100%.
As so often seems to happen, an opposition overcall made things difficult in the bidding but easy in the play.

* If one of North's aces were swapped for a king, this hand would be difficult for those who do not play inverted minors. North cannot bid another suit naturally, but 3 diamonds is an underbid which partner might pass. On the other hand, it might not be correct to bid more diamonds than that in case you miss three notrumps or make it hard to find a slam. If you try 4 notrumps and find two aces missing (no chance on this particular hand!), you will have to settle for 5 diamonds when everyone else is in 3 notrumps. I suppose the only other ideas are to jump to 3 clubs intending to return to diamonds if partner supports them, or jump to 3NT and risk missing a slam. Anyway partner bid 2 diamonds, forcing (three would be pre-emptive). This is one of those conventions, like transfers, which it is recommended you discuss and use with your regular partner if you don't already do so.